New research has found that up to one million more cars could overload UK towns and cities during rush hour if commuters with access to private vehicles switch from public transport to driving as lockdown is eased.
Alternatively, with support from local authorities, up to 2 million additional journeys could be cycled, walked or scooted, resulting in major environmental and public health benefits.
Birmingham has the greatest potential number of new cyclists compared to other areas in England and Wales, with an extra 64,000 hitting the streets. In the worst case, Birmingham could see almost 19,000 extra commuter cars clogging up roads.
A new report by the Active Travel Academy at Westminster University has revealed the risk of an additional one million commuter cars clogging up towns and cities in England and Wales if authorities don’t intervene now to support a switch to walking and cycling instead. The authors warn that as lockdown is lifted but social distancing rules remain in place, public transport capacity and demand will be severely limited for the foreseeable future, leaving millions to find new ways of getting to work – potentially resulting in a massive surge in traffic.
Commissioned by climate charity Possible, the research found that areas which are heavily reliant on public transport could face daily gridlock if those who own cars but previously commuted by public transport choose to drive when they return to work. Nationally, Birmingham faces the second highest potential increase in commuter cars of any region, with an increase of 8% meaning an extra 19,000 vehicles clogging up roads.
However, the analysis also found that with rapid changes to road layouts and new policies to make walking and cycling safer and more attractive, up to half of all public transport journeys in the UK could be made by bike or foot, resulting in up to 2 million more active journeys than before the pandemic. Such a big switch would aid social distancing and avoid at least 500 premature deaths annually from the increase in physical exercise alone – as well as prevent a post-lockdown spike in carbon emissions that could jeopardise vital climate change goals. In Birmingham alone, 7 in 10 public transport commuters could switch to cycling, walking or scooting. Birmingham has the highest potential number of new cyclists of any region, with an additional 64,000 hitting the streets, saving an annual of 21 lives.
In order to avoid gridlocked cities and reap considerable environmental and health benefits, the report sets out immediate actions that authorities should take. These include rolling out pop up cycle lanes on busy routes, such as Leicester’s ‘key worker corridor’ or the new protected bike lane planned for London’s Euston Road, and creating safe low-traffic neighbourhoods by blocking ‘rat run’ traffic on residential streets while maintaining access for local people.
Max Wakefield, Director of Campaigns at Possible, said,
Everyone wants those who must travel for work – especially key workers – to be able to do so safely. But a million more cars on the road would achieve just the opposite, by poisoning our streets and speeding up climate change. This new research sends a clear message. If you need to travel then please stride or ride your journey to keep public transport safe, our streets healthy, and key workers moving. It’s up to councils and the government to make this as easy as possible by making roads safe. If we get this wrong we face a traffic tsunami with deadly effects. Get this right and we’ll unlock safer journeys, cleaner streets and real action on the climate crisis.Â
Professor Rachel Aldred at Active Travel Academy, said,
The report shows we are at a crossroads not just for transport but for how liveable our towns and cities are, especially for the most vulnerable. The worst case is a jump in car dependency, with people understandably desperate to avoid public transport choosing to drive wherever they can. And we have a chance to do things differently. The past months have been very difficult for many of us, but we’ve also seen roads so quiet that children can learn to ride on once clogged streets. If we create safe space for walking, cycling, play and exercise, we can have towns and cities that put people first, where active travel is a real choice for all ages. Or we could have a million more cars on the road, with all the stress, pollution, and injury that will bring.
Councillor Waseem Zaffar, Birmingham City Council’s Cabinet Member for Transport and Environment, said,
The biggest public health emergency in Birmingham is poor air quality, and this will still be the case when we recover from the pandemic. It is hugely important that we as a city achieve a low-carbon recovery, prioritising active travel and doing more to ensure our citizens can walk, cycle and use public transport safely. It is for this reason that we have brought forward our Emergency Transport Plan, which prioritises and accelerates some of the active travel measures that were outlined in the draft Birmingham Transport Plan consulted on earlier this year, in light of covid-19. In addition, I have written to the Secretary of State for Transport to ask for central government to support a default 20mph speed limit in Birmingham. This will provide reassurance to pedestrians and cyclists around road safety concerns, and help us to achieve a cleaner, greener, healthier Birmingham.
